To get a grasp of the wattage I need for the climbs in
Trois Ballons to finish somewhere between 7.15 and 7.45 hours I tried to find
some data to build upon. More specifically I wanted to have some reference of
others on how fast they climbed and the watt/kg they needed for that. I agree
there is more than just the climbs on a 213km cycloride (being in a group that
rides in between the climbs), but quite some time is also spend on the way up
the hills.
There are several ways you could calculate climbing
times and the watts you need. One way is to use some only calculators such as
you can find on for example BikeCalculator or Analyticalcycling.com. Problem with these calculations
is (apart from the fact that weather conditions (wind, etc.) can play a
considerable role in climbing time) is that they do not take into account how
the climb ascents and how your power is distributed over the climb. Another way
would then be to ask a commercial party like cyclingpowerlab.com would could
take into account the climb profile and your estimated (or even ‘optimal’) watt
distribution.
A more direct way is to ask people from which you know
they have a powermeter (and have similar psychological characteristics like
weight and FTP) and ended somewhere between those hours to send you their
information. I did part of that, that is, I know from someone (Mister X), what
is weight is, what his FTP is and at what wattage he climbed the climbs. Based
on that I could extrapolate based on the watt/kg he produced to my own wattage
(given my own weight).
Now, the main ‘problem’ with Mister X is that he ended
in the top 20 and I will not ;) So, in terms of calculating from his watt/kg to
my wattage is OK, but would not tell me anything about my time (simply because
I am not going to climb at his watt/kg). Otherwise I could calculate how many
watts I need to ride the same times (Note, all other factors like coefficient
of drag, bike weight , weather conditions (wind), etc. being equal). Is he a
reference? Only for illustration purposes to show you what you need to end up
in the top 20 (more specifically between 10-20) of a cyclo.
I did not stop with my ‘search’ to get some proxy’s to
make a decent estimate only by looking at Mister X (and adjusting my times
upwards of course). I also looked at Strava to see if I could find some more
people who rode Trois Ballons with a powermeter (you can see that by looking at
the ‘lightning strike’ next to the power) and finished between 7.15h and 7.45h.
From one guy I know his FTP (350) ( Mister Y) but not his weight and for one
other (Mister Z) I only know his wattages from the Strava segments (but by
looking at his picture I can get a good grasp of what he weighs (I hope ;).
Mister Y gives me another opportunity to –at least
calculate if 7.45h is possible- the watt/kg which is needed for that. Based on
Mister Y (who actually did the race in around 7.45h) I can – without knowing
his weight- deduct from his intensity of the climbs (climb wattage / FTP
wattage) my needed wattage and hence my watt/kg. Now another small problem occurs
however. Mister X had a major breakdown in the middle of the race because he
did not hydrate himself well enough (he lost his bottles).
I took all the Strava segments of the Trois Ballons
and deleted the most obvious ones, because sometimes you have several
intermediate segments on the climbs and I am also not interested in the
descents. More than probably I did not delete all, but as you will see I will
also illustrate some of the ‘fall’ in wattage during a cyclo. Note: these guys
are NOT the average cyclo rider in a sense that these guys actually ride as
fast (the race) as they can instead of finishing with a goal like finishing,
gold, silver or bronze.
Below is the graph
which shows you at what intensity the climbs were done. As said this does
contain overlapping Strava segment climbs, but when you plot them all overtime (that
is chronologically after one another) you get a good grasp of the ‘intensity
curve’ (basically I divided the average watts by FTP).
What strikes the eye is that the trend of the
intensity goes downward, most noticeable for Mister Y. Mister X (top 20 rider)
remained most stable I would say while Mister Z did seem to finish strongly,
i.e. relatively started to perform better at the end compared to the others. In
the middle of the ride you see a difference between X and Z with X showing much
higher intensity. Mister Y then had his breakdown due to dehydration. You also
see that both 3 riders put it high intensities in the beginning of the ride. From
the times they rode I can see that they were trying to keep up with the first
riders (with the first big effort being Col des Chevreres). It’s basically the
strategy for most competitive riders: stay in front as long as you can and then
see where it ends. There will probably be more people who drop and you can make
a nice group and still have a descent ride. Till halfway you see that Mister X
stays at at least 90% intensity.
Below you see the watt/kg for some specific Strava
Segments:
Mister X is (as expected) almost continuously above the
other in terms of watt/kg. See what it takes to end op 10-20? Somewhat between
4.5 and 5 watt/kg. And (something you do not see here) is a lot of practice
because if you look at riders in the first 20 most of them have an extensive
experience in riding these rides. You rarely see first contenders who end up
high (or it is an elite/pro rider of course). My current FTP is slightly above 4.7 watt/kg
which is nice, but not enough (let alone no experience, nor priority number) to
compete properly.
As far as my own time estimates are concerned. I used
the intensities that Mister Y rode and then calculated back to my watt/kg. I
also added some time on some climbs since I doubt I will be able to ride at
those intensities. In the first 100km probably yes, after that I think not. I
hope to be able to keep the intensity to ride up the Grand Ballon (around
110km) properly. After that I will see what happens ;) You can see below my
estimates
As for my ride time in total I still hope to be able
to finish between 7.15 and 7.45 with time being closer to 7.45 than 7.15. One
thing that bothers me however is that I am not starting in the front group (I
have number somewhere in the 700s) and so I will not have a nice reference in
front of me. Also in the parts between the climbs I do fear not to be in a nice
group that rides. So, if there is anyone
out there reading this with a nice ambition without a priority number, please
contact me so we can maybe ride together!
